AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen prediction

THE FORECAST

AZ carry notable fatigue risk having played a Europa League fixture just three days prior, while Groningen arrive with a full week's rest and back-to-back wins in their last two, making this closer than the standings suggest. However, AZ's home advantage and superior league position (5th vs 8th, 20 vs 15 pts) still tip the balance in their favour, even accounting for a heavily depleted squad and four league games without a win. Groningen's high scoring average (2.4 gf) but leaky defence (2.2 ga) against AZ's modest but steadier defensive record points to a moderate-scoring game with AZ edging it at home.