Azerbaijan vs Lithuania prediction

THE FORECAST

Azerbaijan hold a 23-place FIFA ranking advantage and play at home, but their historical home record is poor (W20%) while Lithuania's away record is even worse (W16%), creating a low-quality, tight contest. Lithuania lead the group with better recent form (DW vs DD) and slightly superior attacking stats (1.5 gf vs 0.5), yet Azerbaijan's eight-match Nations League winless run is offset by Lithuania's own recent struggles. Both teams have minimal injury/suspension concerns and adequate rest, so a cagey, low-scoring match is expected with Azerbaijan edging the home advantage narrowly.