England vs Croatia prediction

THE FORECAST

England are significantly stronger on all key metrics: a 9-place FIFA ranking advantage, dominant Nations League form (WWWL vs LLLW), and a stark goal difference split (3.5 scored vs 0.8 conceded against Croatia's 1.0 scored vs 3.5 conceded). England's strong home record (73% wins) versus Croatia's modest away record (50% wins) further tilts the balance, though Croatia's occasional quality on the counter keeps the away win probability non-trivial. Both sides have equal rest and no injury concerns, so England should control this match and win comfortably, though Croatia's one recent win suggests they can still create moments of danger.