France vs Belgium prediction

THE FORECAST

France - Belgium → home win (47% / 25% / 28%) | expected score 2-1 | O/U 2.5: 44% France hold a clear ranking advantage (#3 vs #8) and a dominant home record (68% wins in competitive home fixtures), but the absence of Mbappé due to a knee injury is a significant blow to their attacking threat, which is reflected in their modest 1.0 goals-per-game average in this Nations League campaign. Belgium have shown resilience with a strong away record (55% wins) and score more freely (1.7 gf), making this a tighter contest than rankings alone suggest. Both teams have only 3 days of rest and no major rotation incentive given the long gap to the next fixture, so both should field near-full-strength sides, keeping the game competitive but tilting toward France on home soil.